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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Ukraine reinforces Donetsk as it seeks to disrupt Russia’s weapons flow

After repeated disappointments over US Patriots, Kyiv switches to attacking Russia using European weapons.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Al Jazeera

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