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Military··Severity 9

Iran War Exposes Limits of US Military Endurance

Six months into the US conflict with Iran, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about 40% of prewar levels, but risks remain as the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained and the Navy faces mounting pressure on personnel, equipment and finances. Bloomberg News Economic Statecraft Lead Chris Kennedy and Bloomberg News Defense Reporter Jen Judson join hosts Christina Ruffini and Bailey Lipschultz on Bloomberg This Weekend and discuss the strain on US military readiness and why a new US deal involving Venezuelan oil fields is unlikely to deliver a significant near-term boost to global supply. (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

78%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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