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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Somali piracy surges as the impact of the US-Iran war ripples outwards

Two ships were seized within four days last week raising to at least 13 the number attacked since January.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: BBC World

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