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Military··Severity 9

Morning recap

Morning recap Good morning Middle East Eye readers, If you're just joining us, here are key developments from across the region: • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has rejected the US’s repeated claims that the Strait of Hormuz is open, saying US officials are continuing to “lie” to “cover up their failures”. • The United States issued more Iran-related sanctions targeting one entity and one individual on Friday. • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready for cooperation and understanding with regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. • Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains about 90 percent below pre-conflict levels, with operators increasingly favouring a northern route, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said. • US military redirected has 82 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two others to "ensure compliance" with its naval blockade of Iran, US Central Command (Centcom) said. • Israeli defence minister Israel Katz has said the Israeli military evacuated the residents and occupied the Jenin camp in the occupied West Bank. • US Democrats on Friday slammed the Trump administration for dragging out the war on Iran to its six month anniversary, warning Republicans would pay the price in the upcoming midterm elections. • Three Palestinians were injured on Friday night when Israeli settlers attacked the village of Al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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