Economic··Severity 7
US Fed rate hike bets soar to 57% from 30% after Warsh's speech. What are Goldman Sachs and others saying?
US rate-hike expectations jumped sharply after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders pricing a 57% chance of a September hike. Goldman Sachs, however, expects rates to remain unchanged, while warning that hotter-than-expected inflation data could alter the outlook. Here’s what markets and economists are saying.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
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43%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Economic Times
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