Military··Severity 8
Vote count starts in Guinea-Bissau referendum on strengthening presidency
Ten months after a coup, military leaders say the referendum is designed to stabilise future civilian governments.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
65%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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