Geopolitical··Severity 8
US strikes Iran’s Lark Island in first attack in weeks
IRGC says attack in southern Iran killed and injured several soldiers.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
65%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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