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Geopolitical··Severity 8

Finland says it ‘makes no sense’ for Russia to risk attack on a Nato nation

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said he did not believe ⁠Russia would risk ⁠an attack against a Nato country, ⁠telling Germany’s Bild newspaper it would “make no sense” to test the resolve of the alliance. Western officials have warned of a growing risk of Russian hybrid operations, including cyberattacks, against European countries potentially leading to a direct ‌confrontation with the Nato alliance. German officials have said they assess Russia would be in a position to attack a Nato...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

66%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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