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Military··Severity 8

Guinea-Bissau votes in referendum to rewrite constitution and boost presidential powers

Voters in military-ruled Guinea-Bissau, after a coup, vote on Sunday in a referendum to boost presidential powers before elections to restore civilian rule, a process mired in controversy.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

65%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Euronews

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