Geopolitical··Severity 8
Middle East Live: US strikes Iran for first time in a month
The United States said Sunday it had carried out air strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on a small island in the Strait of Hormuz, its first attacks on Iran since late July. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
64%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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