Geopolitical··Severity 8
EU sees no real threat of alleged Russian attack on bloc — Politico
Back in 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to "formalize an agreement on mutual non-aggression with Western countries in order to alleviate the concerns that exist in this regard"
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
59%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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