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Geopolitical··Severity 8

U.S.-Iran Fighting Reignites

A U.S. attack on Larak Island paves the way for renewed heavy warfare.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Foreign Policy

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