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Economic··Severity 7

Gold Holds Decline as Mideast Flare-Up Raises Fed Rate-Hike Bets

Gold steadied after a two-day drop as the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in a month, raising the odds of rising energy costs pushing up inflation and pressuring the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

47%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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