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Economic··Severity 7

Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025

The US 10-year yield topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025 as rising oil prices bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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