Military··Severity 9
US renews attack on Iran while threatening financial sanctions on Tehran allies
Hostilities between the US and Iran resumed after a month's pause. The US said Iran was preparing to launch sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by hitting US military bases in Jordan. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary said there would be more economic sanctions on the way for banks doing business with Iran.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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