← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 9

Trump vows to hit back 'hard' after first exchange of fire with Iran in weeks

Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran "hard" after the two foes traded fire for the first time in over a month, while Iran's president warned that more fighting with the US was not in his country's interest. After six months of war, the foes remain at an impasse, with Iran keeping the strategic Strait of Hormuz closed and the US persisting with a naval counter-blockade of Iran. FRANCE 24's Reza Sayah reports from Tehran.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

72%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: France24

Checking access status…