Latest flare-up between US and Iran bring conflict's lull to an end
Iran's foreign minister has accused Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu of tricking the United States into war with the Islamic Republic. Over six months into the conflict, there appears to be no end in sight. This after the US struck sites in Iran, prompting Tehran to respond. An April ceasefire brought an end to intense fighting, but sporadic attacks have continued over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's closure of the waterway during the conflict has pressured global oil markets, and in turn Donald Trump at home.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
Checking access status…