Geopolitical··Severity 8
Trump says US will hit Iran ‘hard’ as conflict reignites
Oil prices rise after exchange of fire between warring countries ends weeks of relative quiet
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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