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Military··Severity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are the latest updates from across the region: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it carried out strikes on US infrastructure at the King Hussein and al-Azraq bases in Jordan and drone attacks targeting the UAE's Al Minhad Air Base with drones early on Monday. The strikes were in response to the killing and wounding of IRGC members and Iranian civilians in an earlier US attack on Larak Island. Meanwhile, the US Central Command (Centcom) said it targeted Iran as it posed an "imminent threat" in the Strait of Hormuz. "In essence, Iran created the threat and the U.S. military eliminated it to protect civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce," it said in a post on X. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran is "not looking for war", but asserted that it would "never sit still in the face of any aggression". Iran "will give a decisive response to the aggressors" if attacked, Pezeshkian said. "Instability and unrest in the region are not in the interest of any country and will challenge everyone," he added. Donald Trump has reiterated that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. The US president told Fox News that if Tehran had access to nuclear weapons, the region and Israel would be destroyed, with the US or Europe possibly becoming the next targets. The US Treasury Department will likely unveil weekly secondary sanctions aimed at adding economic pressure on Iran, with an initial focus on banks. "You're going to see a lot more of these every week," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Sunday. "We're starting with the banks, and we're telling the banks it's not okay to have Iranian money and to aid the regime."

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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