Geopolitical··Severity 8
Iran war live: Trump vows to strike Iran ‘hard’ after first clash in month
President Donald Trump says the US will respond to Iranian strikes on its personnel in Jordan.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
65%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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