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Social··Severity 7

‘Worst yet to come’ as Hong Kong schools cut record 126 Primary One classes

Hong Kong public schools have slashed a record 126 Primary One classes for the 2026-27 academic year amid a shrinking student population, prompting a sector leader to warn that the “worst is yet to come”. According to the latest Primary School Profiles, the total number of Primary One classes across public schools dropped from 1,558 in 2025-26 to 1,432 in 2026-27, representing a net decrease of 8 per cent. The guide covers more than 500 local primary institutions and is compiled by the Committee...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

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35%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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