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Military··Severity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are the latest developments: The US military announced on Tuesday that it has completed fresh attacks on Iran, with local reports indicating that civilians attending a wedding were amongst the latest victims. In response, Tehran carried out strikes across the region on US facilities and its troops, including in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq's northern Kurdish province of Erbil. The spokesperson of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that operations against the US will "continue as a lesson to them until they regret their crime". He warned that the continuation of "American evil in the region will be met with heavier, broader, and more devastating responses, and any country that cooperates with the aggressive American army must accept its dangerous consequences". US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Wright's statement shows a discrepancy with preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler, which recorded only five commodity vessels transiting the waterway that day, with no liquid tankers recorded. US president Donald Trump has denied reports alleging that he is trying to bring Iran back into peace discussions. "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement," he said in a post on his platform Truth Social. He added that the US has "almost total control" over the Hormuz Strait. Two Israeli air strikes targeted the vicinity of the southern Lebanese towns of Kfar Rumman and Arab Salim in southern Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported. A short while before, the Israeli army announced that "interceptors were launched toward a suspicious aerial target," that it alleged crossed from Lebanese territory into northern Israel.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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Эскалация

80%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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