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Geopolitical··Severity 8

US-Iran Conflict Intensifies as Trump Downplays Desire for Deal

The conflict between the US and Iran escalated sharply, with American forces carrying out a fresh wave of strikes and Iran saying it had retaliated. Meanwhile President Donald Trump downplayed the chances of a deal, writing in a post on Truth Social that he’s “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

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62%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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