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Geopolitical··Severity 8

India defies Iran war oil shock to keep 8% growth on track

India’s stronger-than-expected first quarter growth has bolstered analysts’ confidence that it can sustain its momentum through the rest of the financial year and remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy – even as it remains exposed to high oil prices caused by the US-Iran war. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, comfortably beating the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7 per cent growth, despite the disruption that the Middle East conflict has caused to...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

64%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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