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Economic··Severity 7

Senegal Starts Countdown to First African Default Since 2023

Senegal has been at the front of emerging-market bond investors’ minds since the government discovered billions of dollars of hidden debt two years ago.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

40%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Bloomberg Markets

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