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Geopolitical··Severity 9

Morning update

Morning update Good morning Middle East Eye readers, Here are the latest developments: The spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said that it laid more naval mines south of Strait of Hormuz, dismissing US claims of control over the strategic passage. "The only thing CENTCOM could do in response was rename the Strait using Photoshop. Problem solved! You can just use Photoshop to get the oil tankers through, too!" Ebrahim Zolfaghari said, mocking earlier pictures released by the Trump administration where the waterway was labelled with various claims of belonging to the US. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday expressed "grave concern" after renewed strikes between the US and Iran, and condemned all attacks against civilians. UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said that the UN chief urged Washington and Tehran to "return urgently to diplomacy," adding that a "comprehensive and durable settlement can be achieved only through dialog and negotiations". The Iranian health ministry's spokesperson indicated in his latest update that 18 people were killed in the recent US strikes on the country, while 142 others were left wounded. In a post on X, Hossein Kermanpour said that amongst those killed were two women and a child. Meanwhile, women (61) and children (44) accounted for most of those wounded. US President Donald Trump said Washington was ready to attack Iran again after extensive strikes across the country killed and wounded dozens. "We blew up much more than their radar last night. It was a very heavy attack last night, and we’re prepared to do another one any time we want," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. White House envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with the UAE's national security adviser to discuss the next steps on Iran, according to Axios. Witkoff met with Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed al Nahyan on the Italian island of Sardinia, where they brainstormed the subsequent actions amid the war on Iran and discussed other issues, one source told the website.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

67%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Middle East Eye

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