Geopolitical··Severity 9
Widening war with Iran threatens US with depletion of air defense missile stocks — NYT
One official told the newspaper that the strikes have the opposite effect of what is intended, keeping Iran cohesive and allowing the leaders to focus attention on the external threat
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
75%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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