Geopolitical··Severity 6
Protests over defense minister’s dismissal spread to four Ukrainian cities
Dozens of people have taken to the streets
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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