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Social··Severity 6

Italy suspends EU Schengen free-travel pact with Spain over Ceuta migrant crisis

Italy said on Friday it ⁠was suspending the EU’s ⁠border-free Schengen arrangements with Spain in ⁠response to a mass influx of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco. Italy does not share a land border with Spain but the measure – which looks certain to anger Madrid – will ‌affect people travelling by plane or boat between the two countries, meaning they will need to show a passport to gain access. Italy’s interior ministry said in a statement it had also agreed...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

30%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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