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Geopolitical··Severity 9

How to Stop China from Freeriding on American AI

The release of the Chinese open-weight AI model Kimi K3 has compressed a year’s worth of unresolved AI policy debate into a single news cycle. On July 21, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened sanctions against Chinese labs found to have built their models on “theft,” reporting that the government is “finding watermarks of our U.S. large language models on many of the Chinese models.” The following day, White House science advisor Michael Kratsios clarified that the Chinese AI lab behind K3, Moonshot AI, had built a sophisticated platform to copy Anthropic’s Fable model while evading detection.Industry has been vocal about The post How to Stop China from Freeriding on American AI appeared first on War on the Rocks .

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

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69%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: War on the Rocks

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