Geopolitical··Severity 6
How Putin’s refinery dream became Ukraine’s target
Damage to Russian refineries still visible from space months after strikes
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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