Geopolitical··Severity 6
Ukrainian attacks kill over 320 children, injure almost 1,250 in DPR, LPR since 2014
"A total of 247 children were killed and 1,012 were injured during Ukrainian aggression in the Donetsk People’s Republic since 2014," DPR acting head Denis Pushilin stated
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
57%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions., Time horizon: 10
B
31%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions., Time horizon: 10
C
12%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Ukrainian military operations near DPR/LPR borders, followed by confirmed strikes on key infrastructure within the regions., Time horizon: 10
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