Geopolitical··Severity 6
Nicaragua's legislature debates barring opposition from elections
The move comes days after President Daniel Ortega demanded 'a wall, a blockade' against opposition parties.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: BBC World
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