Geopolitical··Severity 8
Ukrainian air defences down three missiles and over 200 drones overnight, Iskander strike confirmed
Ukraine's air defences intercepted 204 drones and three guided missiles during an overnight Russian assault, although an Iskander ballistic missile struck near Kyiv.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
67%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Ukrainska Pravda
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