No one scared by Trump's threats to impose duties for abandoning dollar — Lula

Commenting on Donald Trump’s policies since taking office this January, the Brazilian leader noted that the new president was elected by Americans "to govern the United States, not the entire world" A: Escalation (model probability 47%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public B: Status Quo (model probability 38%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public C: De-escalation (model probability 14%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public

No one scared by Trump's threats to impose duties for abandoning dollar — Lula

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation