Geopolitical··Severity 6
New Caledonia: A deeply divided territory
Two years after the riots that shook New Caledonia in 2024, FRANCE 24 returns to a French overseas territory still grappling with the consequences of one of the darkest chapters in its recent history. Travelling from the Kanak independence stronghold of Saint-Louis to Mont-Dore, Nouméa and Bourail, our reporters meet the people living with the lasting scars of the violence.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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