Economic··Severity 7
US Treasury Yields Rise to 2026 Highs as Oil Gains Spark Fed Bet
US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year as the threat of escalation in the Iran war sent oil prices higher, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as next week.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
47%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Bloomberg Markets
Checking access status…