Geopolitical··Severity 8
WHO reports over 8,500 global attacks on health facilities since 2018 — director general
"Attacks on health care have become the 'new normal' of conflict," WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
71%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increase in reports of violence against medical personnel, significant escalation of armed conflicts involving healthcare facilities, and a surge in diplomatic disputes over humanitarian aid delivery.
B
21%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Increase in reports of violence against medical personnel, significant escalation of armed conflicts involving healthcare facilities, and a surge in diplomatic disputes over humanitarian aid delivery.
C
8%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Increase in reports of violence against medical personnel, significant escalation of armed conflicts involving healthcare facilities, and a surge in diplomatic disputes over humanitarian aid delivery.
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