Geopolitical··Severity 6
Thousands of Ukrainians protest against Zelenskyy’s firing of defence minister
Deputy air force commander resigns as president faces backlash over decision
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
35%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: FT World
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