← Scenarios catalogue
Geopolitical··Severity 6

Yes, Europe Is a Middle Power, Too

The Iran war has underscored the need for a change in state psychology.

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

42%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: Foreign Policy

Checking access status…