Geopolitical··Severity 6
Yes, Europe Is a Middle Power, Too
The Iran war has underscored the need for a change in state psychology.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
42%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
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