Geopolitical··Severity 6
The Texas Screwworm Cases Are a Wake-Up Call for U.S. Biosecurity
The U.S. biosecurity system is poorly prepared for new threats. Naturally occurring crop diseases not yet present could cause billions of dollars in losses if introduced here. Engineered pathogens delivered deliberately could be far worse.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: RAND
Checking access status…