Geopolitical··Severity 6
Is the world at risk of another energy shock?
Disruptions across Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb and the Black Sea threaten supplies and raise costs for consumers.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
37%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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