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Natural··Severity 7

China factories cool, CXMT surges, PLA marks anniversary

China’s factory activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction for the first time in five months, and construction activity fell to its lowest since the pandemic, underscoring a divide in the nation’s economy that complicates efforts to revive growth. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.2 in July, missing the 50.1 median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists. Construction and services, part of non-manufacturing PMI, tumbled to 49 from 50.2 a month...

Scenario chain

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

34%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Primary source: South China Morning Post

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