Geopolitical··Severity 6
Russia’s FSB charges Telegram co-founder Durov with facilitating terrorist activities
Russia’s Federal Security Service said that an international warrant for Pavel Durov's arrest has been issued
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: TASS English
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