Geopolitical··Severity 8
Air defences activate in Iran and flames rise from US attacks
Explosions could be heard over Tehran as the US army said it had completed its 11th consecutive day of strikes on Iran.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
62%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Al Jazeera
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