Geopolitical··Severity 9
Middle East live: Tehran threatens 'full-scale' offensive as US launches seventh night of attacks
The US launched a seventh wave of airstrikes on Iran overnight on Friday despite a warning from Tehran that it would resume "full-scale offensive operations" if the attacks continued. Follow our liveblog for the latest updates.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
80%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: France24
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