Russia, Iran interested in preventing tensions around Tehran’s nuclear program — MFA

According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the parties thoroughly exchanged views on the situation around Iran’s nuclear program, particularly in light of the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting A: Escalation (model probability 52%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t B: Status Quo (model probability 35%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t C: De-escalation (model probability 13%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t

Russia, Iran interested in preventing tensions around Tehran’s nuclear program — MFA

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation