Geopolitical··Severity 6
Trump Needs to Defy History to End the Iran War
U.S. presidents are virtually never able to end the stalemated wars they start.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
40%Эскалация
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Primary source: Foreign Policy
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