Geopolitical··Severity 6
Cocaine-Funded Gangs Shake Colombia Years After Peace Pact
Attacks by powerful militias against civilians reflect the state’s inaction eight years after a peace accord removed a powerful rebel group from the field.
Scenario chain
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
38%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Widespread media reports of increased violence from militias targeting civilians, followed by official statements from the Colombian government acknowledging heightened tensions and outlining new security measures.
B
45%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Widespread media reports of increased violence from militias targeting civilians, followed by official statements from the Colombian government acknowledging heightened tensions and outlining new security measures.
C
17%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Widespread media reports of increased violence from militias targeting civilians, followed by official statements from the Colombian government acknowledging heightened tensions and outlining new security measures.
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