US trade embargo against Cuba must be lifted — Medvedev

The rapprochement between the two countries stalled after Republican Donald Trump took office in January 2017 A: Escalation (model probability 46%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, leading to increased tension between US and Cuban officials. Tensions escalate further when Russia's influence in Latin America weakens due to internal political turmoil. This creates a power vacuum that allows Venezuela to exert greater pressure on Cuba, potentially using military support or economic leverage. * The US State Department issues a formal statement condemning the Venezuelan government for its actions in Cuba. * A group of Cuban exiles in Florida organize protests demanding sanctions against Venezuela and increased ties with Russia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, but relations between the two countries remain strained. The embargo continues to be a poi B: Status Quo (model probability 39%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, leading to increased tension between US and Cuban officials. Tensions escalate further when Russia's influence in Latin America weakens due to internal political turmoil. This creates a power vacuum that allows Venezuela to exert greater pressure on Cuba, potentially using military support or economic leverage. * The US State Department issues a formal statement condemning the Venezuelan government for its actions in Cuba. * A group of Cuban exiles in Florida organize protests demanding sanctions against Venezuela and increased ties with Russia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, but relations between the two countries remain strained. The embargo continues to be a poi C: De-escalation (model probability 15%, not a guarantee) — Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, leading to increased tension between US and Cuban officials. Tensions escalate further when Russia's influence in Latin America weakens due to internal political turmoil. This creates a power vacuum that allows Venezuela to exert greater pressure on Cuba, potentially using military support or economic leverage. * The US State Department issues a formal statement condemning the Venezuelan government for its actions in Cuba. * A group of Cuban exiles in Florida organize protests demanding sanctions against Venezuela and increased ties with Russia. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The US trade embargo against Cuba remains in place, but relations between the two countries remain strained. The embargo continues to be a poi

US trade embargo against Cuba must be lifted — Medvedev

Scenario chain

Escalation

Status quo

De-escalation